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Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Chris Christie make variations of a single argument when they’re on the campaign trail. They each have their standard talking points, but the tie that binds them is their message that Donald Trump cannot win the general election.
This is, of course, ludicrous. And while Vivek Ramaswamy is the only candidate other than Trump who acknowledges the 2020 election was stolen, even the other candidates in denial cannot overlook one extremely important statistic that is only becoming more glaring with every passing poll.
Black voters are shifting toward Donald Trump in numbers Republicans haven’t seen since the days of Martin Luther King, Jr. A whopping 17% of Black voters said they’d vote for Trump over Biden, which is over double the 8% he received during the 2020 election.
According to Wendell Husebø from Breitbart:
“It is possible, and we’ve seen it before, that a higher number, in particular Black men because of a kind of hypermasculinity of Donald Trump, could vote for Trump [again],” the founder and director of the GenForward project and University of Chicago political science professor Cathy Cohen told Politico.
The poll surveyed 3,448 eligible voters from November 8–30 with a 3-point margin of error.
Meanwhile, polling shows President Joe Biden has a growing problem with retaining the support of black and Hispanic voters. New York Times/Siena College polling in November found the president’s support among nonwhite voters sank 33 points compared to 2020 election results.
It’s important to note that they’re NOT shifting their votes to Republicans in general. It’s just Trump. Even those who hate Trump and also hate Biden are unlikely to vote for DeSantis or Haley. They’ll hold their nose and vote for Biden or they won’t vote at all.
Corporate media is concerned. According to Nate Cohn at the NY Times:
Overall, Mr. Biden leads by 81-8 among Black voters who turned out in 2022, but by just 62-14 among those who skipped the midterm elections. Similarly, he leads by 53-33 among Hispanics who voted in the midterms, compared with just a 42-37 lead among those who did not vote.
The survey finds evidence that a modest but important 5 percent of nonwhite Biden voters now support Mr. Trump, including 8 percent of Hispanic voters who say they backed Mr. Biden in 2020.
Beyond voters who have flipped to Mr. Trump, a large number of disaffected voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 now say they’re undecided or simply won’t vote this time around. As a consequence, his weakness is concentrated among less engaged voters on the periphery of politics, who have not consistently voted in recent elections and who may decide to stay home next November.
That analysis was from September. It has only gotten better for Trump since then.
The best chance for NeverTrumpers who want Haley or DeSantis is if primary voters can be made to believe Trump can’t win in the general election. But that math simply doesn’t add up.
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