The Bear
Gold prices have surged above $1,950 per ounce due to subdued inflation pressures. However, despite Tuesday’s gains, an international bank holds a bearish outlook for the remainder of the year as the fear trade diminishes.
In his recent analysis, Bernard Dahdah, a precious metals analyst at Natixis, suggests that gold prices could drop by another 4%, bringing them below $1,900 per ounce. This projection is based on expectations of stabilization in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly as Israel’s conflict with Hamas remains localized within Gaza’s borders.
Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Dahdah anticipates long-term potential for gold extending into 2024 and 2025. He notes that even if a correction occurs, gold prices are likely to find support as the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates, possibly as early as May.
Dahdah states in the report, “Although we see gold prices retreating in the near term, behind a long-term cease-fire that will eventually come, prices will still average $1,883/oz in 2024 and rise to an average of $1,918/oz in 2025.”
As of the latest update, December gold futures traded at $1,968.10 per ounce, marking a nearly 1% increase for the day. Investors continue to analyze the most recent Consumer Price Index report, with Tuesday’s inflation data reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve is concluding its interest rate hikes in the current tightening cycle.
October’s CPI indicated a 3.2% increase in inflation over the past 12 months, representing the weakest rise since December 2021. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests a nearly 100% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next month. Market expectations point to the first rate cut occurring in May, with a total of three rate cuts anticipated through the following year.
While the Federal Reserve has signaled the end of interest rate hikes, it remains committed to maintaining restrictive rates to ensure inflation aligns with its 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at an event hosted by the International Monetary Fund, stated that the committee is not confident it has done enough to bring inflation down. Powell emphasized the potential for further policy tightening if deemed necessary, expressing a cautious approach to balance economic data and the risk of overtightening.
The Bull
The robustness of the U.S. dollar has restrained gold prices throughout 2023, but according to Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, the precious metal might be on the verge of a substantial breakout in the near future.
During a recent interview with BNN Bloomberg, Petursson expressed optimism, stating that even at the $2,000 per ounce mark, gold holds significant potential for an upward trajectory in the coming year.
“Gold has grappled with the strength of the U.S. dollar for the majority of this year,” Petursson noted. “They typically exhibit an inverse correlation, meaning as the U.S. dollar strengthens, gold tends to experience a slight weakening. Now, if we anticipate a softening of the U.S. dollar from this point forward—and that is our foundational expectation for 2024—that bodes well for gold.”
Petursson indicated that IG Wealth Management perceives gold as undervalued by as much as 20%. He anticipates that once gold overcomes the $2,000 barrier convincingly, it could potentially surge higher, reaching up to $2,400.
IG Wealth Management maintains a bullish outlook even if bond yields persist at multi-decade highs, and they remain optimistic about the U.S. economy achieving a soft landing without entering into a recession.
“As we navigate the remainder of 2023 and contemplate 2024, we maintain the perspective that higher bond yields will likely introduce some volatility into the equity markets,” Petursson stated in their 2023 third-quarter market review.
“Nevertheless, our economic outlook still leans toward a soft-landing scenario in the United States, fostering a cautiously optimistic outlook for equities over the next 12 months,” he added. “In the interim, fixed-income investors are poised to benefit from the overall increase in interest rates.”
Why One Survival Food Company Shines Above the Rest
Let’s be real. “Prepper Food” or “Survival Food” is generally awful. The vast majority of companies that push their cans, bags, or buckets desperately hope that their customers never try them and stick them in the closet or pantry instead. Why? Because if the first time they try them is after the crap hits the fan, they’ll be too shaken to call and complain about the quality.
It’s true. Most long-term storage food is made with the cheapest possible ingredients with limited taste and even less nutritional value. This is why they tout calories so much. Sure, they provide calories but does anyone really want to go into the apocalypse with food their family can’t stand?
This is what prompted the Llewellyns to launch Heaven’s Harvest. They bought survival food from multiple companies and determined they couldn’t imagine being stuck in an extended emergency with such low-quality food. They quickly discovered that freeze drying food for long-term storage doesn’t have to mean sacrificing flavor, consistency, or nutrition.
Their ingredients are all-American. In fact, they’re locally sourced and all-natural! This allows their products to be the highest quality on the market, so good that their customers often break open a bag in a pinch to eat because they want to, not just because they have to due to an emergency.
At Heaven’s Harvest, their only focus is amazing food. They don’t sell bugout bags, solar chargers, or multitools. They have one mission – feeding Americans in times of crisis.
What they DO offer is the ability for people to thrive in times of greatest need. On top of long-term storage food, they offer seeds to help Americans for the truly long-term. They want them to grow their own food if possible which is why they offer only Heirloom, Non-GMO, Non-Hybrid, Open-Pollinated seeds so their customers can build permanent food security on their own property.
