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One Last Time: Wargaming the Senate

by Red State
October 29, 2024
in Aggregated, Opinions
One Last Time: Wargaming the Senate

With a little over a week to go, there is one major federal issue I have not recently wargamed: The United States Senate. The Senate is vital to the implementation of any presidential agenda; not only does this upper house have an up-or-down on all legislation, but they are also responsible for the “advise and consent” function for executive branch officials and, perhaps most important of all, federal judges – including Supreme Court justices.

If Donald Trump and JD Vance win this election, which is looking increasingly likely, they’ll need a friendly Congress. So, let’s take a look at some key Senate races and how the balance of the Senate is liable to turn out. My friend and colleague Jennifer Oliver O’Connell took a look at the Senate races a couple of weeks ago as well:

Let’s look at how things stand now, nine days before the election. The RealClearPolitics average compilation of the Senate has the GOP already holding a two-seat lead, 51-49, assuming current polling holds. The toss-up states are Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

  • Michigan. At the moment, in the RCP averages, Democrat Elissa Slotkin is leading Republican Mike Rogers by a narrow but comfortable margin of three points – but much of that comes from a Quinnipiac poll done on 10/17 – 10/21 that has Slotkin up by eight points, which feels a lot like an outlier. Even so, for the moment, we’ll award this state to the Democrats.
  • Nevada. The RCP averages have Democrat Jacky Rosen leading Republican Sam Brown by an even more comfortable 4.9 points. The polling has been pretty consistent since early October, so in an abundance of caution, we have to also award this seat to the Democrats.
  • Ohio. This one’s a nail-biter. The RCP average has Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Bernie Moreno by a squeaker – one point. But there may be a twist there, and I am going to break a rule and go with a gut feeling on this one, and here’s why: while Brown has the advantage of incumbency, which is something of a problem to surmount, Ohio is becoming an increasingly-red state, and in the presidential race, Donald Trump is holding a very comfortable seven-point lead. My gut tells me Bernie Moreno may pull this one out, so I’m tentatively and hopefully giving this seat to the GOP; Moreno may be able to ride Trump’s coattails to a victory.
  • Pennsylvania. Another nail-biter. Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. is leading Republican Dave McCormick by a skosh over a point and a half. Donald Trump is polling even closer, leading by 0.6 points. That’s a squeaker by any measure, and while Pennsylvania is something of a wild card in this election, I’m going to have to give the incumbent the win here.
  • Wisconsin. The Badger State may well be the most tossup-ey of the toss-ups. The race is just damn near a tie between the incumbent, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and her GOP challenger Eric Hovde. The most recent polls show little movement since early October; a Trafalgar poll taken 10/18-10/20 has Hovde up by a point, a Quinnipiac poll on 10/17-10/21 has Baldwin likewise up a point, while an Emerson poll taken 10/21-10/22 shows a tie. The presidential race is still essentially tied, with Trump leading by a razor-thin margin of 0.2 points. In an abundance of caution, I’ll give this one to the incumbent. […]

— Read More: redstate.com

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Starting the Day With a Scripture-Inspired Roast Helps Center Your Thoughts on Eternal Truths Amid Temporal Pressures

The world can seem chaotic, especially right after we wake up. Many believers start their mornings reaching for something familiar — a hot cup of coffee — yet end up settling for mediocre brews that do little more than deliver a caffeine jolt. The daily grind of life, with its endless distractions, news cycles, and responsibilities, can leave even the most faithful feeling spiritually parched alongside their physical fatigue. What if your morning ritual could do more than wake you up? What if it could ground you in truth, nourish your body with exceptional quality, and quietly advance a kingdom purpose at the same time?

That’s the promise — and the reality — behind Promised Grounds Coffee. This Christian-founded company doesn’t just roast beans; it approaches every step as an act of worship and discipleship. By selecting only the top 10% of specialty-grade beans, ethically sourced from dedicated farmers in Central and South America, and small-batch roasting them with reverence in Austin, Texas, Promised Grounds delivers what many describe as the best coffee available — never burnt, never bland, but rich with origin stories and layered flavors that honor God’s creation.

From the vibrant Psalm 27 Roast (a light, bright medium option) to the bold yet peaceful 2 Timothy 1:7 Decaf, each bag carries a Scripture verse that turns your daily pour into a gentle reminder of faith. And through their Ounce Per Ounce Promise, every ounce of coffee you enjoy provides an equal ounce of clean water to families in need via partnership with Filter of Hope — literally brewing hope for body and soul, one cup at a time.

The challenge for today’s Christians runs deeper than finding a decent cup. In an age of convenience-driven consumerism, it’s easy to support companies that dilute values or remain silent on matters of faith. Many believers want their everyday choices — from what they drink to how they spend — to reflect discipleship rather than just convenience. Promised Grounds solves this by weaving Christian excellence into the entire process: beans nurtured with prayerful stewardship by farming families, roasted as an offering rather than a commodity, and packaged with Bible verses to encourage a mindset of gratitude and purpose from the first sip. Reviewers consistently praise the smooth, rich profiles — whether enjoyed black in a drip maker, iced on a warm day, or shared in fellowship — noting how the quality stands toe-to-toe with premium secular brands while delivering something far more meaningful.

This integration of faith and flavor addresses a real need in Christian households and ministries. Busy parents, church leaders, and remote workers alike report that starting the day with a Scripture-inspired roast helps center their thoughts on eternal truths amid temporal pressures. The coffee’s exceptional character — bright citrus notes in lighter roasts or deep chocolate undertones in bolder ones — comes from meticulous selection and careful roasting that respects the bean’s natural gifts rather than masking them. It’s the kind of coffee that elevates a simple quiet time, fuels productive workdays, or sparks meaningful conversations when shared at Bible studies or outreach events. And because it’s ethically sourced with integrity, every purchase supports sustainable livelihoods for farmers who treat their crops like family harvests.

For those leading churches or small groups, the impact multiplies. Promised Grounds offers bundles and options perfect for hospitality ministries, turning ordinary coffee service into an opportunity to point people toward the living water of Christ. Imagine greeting visitors with a warm cup whose very bag carries God’s Word — a subtle yet powerful witness that aligns with the Great Commission. The company’s Texas roots and commitment to “brewing hope” resonate especially with believers who value American enterprise paired with global compassion.

Of course, quality alone isn’t enough if the experience feels out of reach. Promised Grounds keeps it accessible with practical perks like free shipping on orders over $40, sample sets for discovering favorites, and thoughtful add-ons such as faith-themed mugs. Whether you prefer whole beans for fresh grinding, grounds for convenience, or even bulk options for larger households and ministries, the result is consistently superior coffee that makes discipleship feel integrated rather than added on.

As you consider how to align even the smallest habits with your walk with God, Promised Grounds Coffee stands out as a refreshing solution. It tackles the dual problems of subpar daily sustenance and disconnected consumption by offering a product that genuinely excels in taste while advancing a mission of clean water, farmer dignity, and scriptural encouragement. Believers who make the switch often describe it as more than a beverage upgrade — it becomes part of their rhythm of gratitude, a daily invitation to remember that every good gift comes from above.

If you’re ready to transform your mornings (and perhaps your church gatherings) with coffee that honors both exceptional craftsmanship and Christian values, I encourage you to explore what Promised Grounds has to offer. One sip at a time, you’ll be nourishing your body, refreshing your spirit, and participating in something far greater — all while enjoying what truly is among the best coffee available.

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