On this episode of The Long View, Barry Ritholtz, author, podcaster, and co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, breaks down how saying “I don’t know” can be a superpower.
Here are a few excerpts from Ritholtz’s conversation with Morningstar’s Christine Benz and Amy Arnott.
Why People Gravitate Toward Market Forecasts
Amy Arnott: You’ve written extensively about the fact that nobody knows anything, and you go through a bunch of examples in the book about how this applies to different areas like movies, music, television, economics, policy, market trends, etc. But why do you think people still latch onto predictions and kind of gravitate toward experts who make forecasts?
Barry Ritholtz: So, there’s a couple of reasons. People are very unhappy with the general concept that the universe is somewhat random. And frequently our expectations are derailed by wholly unanticipated events. Right? So, my favorite few examples: Nobody had in their 2020 forecast “a global pandemic is going to shut the economy.” Nobody had in their 2022 forecast “Russia is going to invade Ukraine” and “oil is going to shockingly come down in price.” I’m sorry, that was ’21, ’22, I don’t remember which year, or heading into 2022, “the fastest rate-hiking cycle that’s going to lead to negative double-digit returns for stocks and bonds.”
Like, all these events happen, and even some events that are sort of anticipated, like the Fed hiking cycle or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they just derail our hopes and dreams somewhat randomly. So, there’s a tendency to want some form of certainty. We are social animals. We are primates that evolved in a group. So, we want a strong leader who’s confident and can tell us what’s going to happen and keep us safe. And in fact, the academic studies show us a couple of shocking things about forecasters. […]
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At Last, a Company With Integrity in the Gold IRA Industry
For several years, I’ve been vetting out precious metals companies in search of the best. I believe in gold and silver but it’s hard to find integrity in the Gold IRA industry. The vast majority operate with shady tactics and gigantic spreads that take advantage of Americans who simply want to protect their life’s savings.
I’ve found a handful that I like and I’ve worked with some of them. By no means would I “unrecommend” them because, again, I vetted them out and found them to be above the fold. Unfortunately, it isn’t hard to be better than the rest when the rest are so darn awful.
After years of searching, I finally found a company that truly operates with integrity. Augusta Precious Metals has three important attributes that set them far above the competition:
- Non-Commissioned Sales Team: I cannot stress how important and unique this is. With just about every other company in the Gold IRA industry, the sales teams make commission from every account they open. This means they steer their clients toward the gold and silver products with the highest commission. With Augusta Precious Metals, the team is solely focused on putting the best gold and silver for their clients into their IRA. They get paid to serve the best interests of the Gold IRA client, NOT their own commission pay.
- Incredibly Low Fees: Most Americans would be shocked if they knew the spread other Gold IRA companies charge. Augusta charges just 5% versus up to 45% elsewhere.
- No Pressure, No Gimmicks: There’s an understanding among most in the Gold IRA industry that fear and pressure is the way to go. Augusta Precious Metals takes a sober approach when working with clients because they hold integrity in the highest possible regard. This is why they don’t offer gimmicks like “free” or “bonus” silver. It’s also why they do not apply pressure tactics to get quick sales. Their educational and transparent approach to doing business is exceedingly rare in the Gold IRA industry.
