(Alt-Market)—This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group
For those who might have been out of the loop over the past few months, there is a war going on between the US and Europe. Largely, it’s western European governments that are the problem – They started the conflict, they continue to perpetuate the conflict, and they tend to cry victim when they suffer any consequences for it.
It’s clear that the European elites have a distaste for US policy. From anti-woke reforms and immigration restrictions to geopolitical interactions, when Americans voted en masse to remove the far-left Biden regime, Europe became an overnight enemy. I think it’s important to understand that the European leadership does do NOT view the Trump Administration as their primary threat. No, they view YOU as their primary threat.
American conservatives, nationalists, patriots, truth activists, etc. are the target of an international demonization campaign. And, as long as we hold sway in American politics, they will treat the US as a potential enemy.
Since 2014, Western European progressives (globalists) have been pursuing a multicultural blitzkrieg of their own respective populations. Open borders and mass immigration from largely Islamic countries became the political standard, with many European citizens suckered or shamed into compliance using two big lies:
Lie #1: Native Europeans are responsible for offering reparations to third worlders for centuries of “colonialism” and decades of war in the Middle East.
Lie #2: Mass immigration is vital to European economies because of cascading population decline and shrinking labor force.
For a decade this has been the methodology in Europe with increasingly horrific results (including a massive spike in sexual assaults and knife crimes).
To address the first lie, the vast majority of migrants entering Europe from the third world are not traveling from war torn countries. This narrative was a fabrication by liberals in Europe in order to grease the wheels for public support of open borders. Furthermore, the argument that western nations are somehow required to compensate the rest of the world for their geopolitical success is a fallacy.
We don’t owe anyone anything and we’re not required to take on immigrants for any reason, ever.
The second lie is much more complicated. Europe does not need immigrants to reinforce the economy, but what if they are useful for something else? An agenda which is not yet clear?
It has long been my position that the globalists in Europe intend on integrating into a wider opposition bloc, a coalition against nationalism, free markets, meritocracy, free democracy, etc. Evidence suggests that this coalition will include elements of Asia and their eyes on resource rich regions of Africa.
Russia is a wild card. Europe’s leaders are ravenous, they want a greater war and they see Ukraine as the best opportunity. That said, this does not mean Russia is our friend.
I believe European leaders (much like leftists in the US) want the establishment of a “new world order” in which national borders are erased and green authoritarian socialism is enforced under a globally centralized bureaucracy. There are many ways to go about achieving this agenda.
For example, the globalists have tried implementing international climate change laws and carbon controls as a means to limit industry and dominate energy resources. I would argue that this plan has failed as it becomes more and more clear to the public that global warming science is mostly propaganda. The majority of the opposition to the carbon agenda has come from the US.
They tried medical tyranny, using pandemic hysteria through perpetual lockdowns and vaccine passports. This also failed, with twenty-two red states blocking the mandates. If they couldn’t get the US to comply, then the rest of the world would see that a nation could operate perfectly fine without authoritarian micromanagement.
They also tried to lure the US into a war in Ukraine to function as a meat shield against Russia. This would trap America in a perpetual quagmire in the best case scenario, weakening the US while Europe is strengthened through years of resource infusions. This plan also seems to have failed. The American public has zero interest in entering the Ukrainian theater or going to war with Russia without a substantial reason.
A fourth tactic is mass immigration, which has been much more successful. The US was almost overrun under the Biden Administration and now we are faced with a long uphill battle to deport millions of illegals. On the upside, border crossings have dropped by 95% and he majority of the citizenry now supports deportations.
Europe has been overwhelmed by a third world incursion. Between 50 million and 60 million migrants now reside in the region, making up around 20% of Western Europe’s total population. But is this just globalist sabotage of the west? Or, does this army of migrants serve another purpose?
As an economic resource they are a net negative. If the idea is for migrants to increase the labor pool and fill traditional jobs, then there is no positive return. Germany’s unemployment rate has climbed to 6.4% and 54% of the unemployed are migrants. These people they take far more in welfare subsidies than they contribute in economic activity.
The same goes for Spain, where the unemployment rate is 10%, yet the far-left Spanish government continues to flood the country with foreigners. The UK’s unemployment rate has climbed to 5% and 22% of the unemployed are foreign nationals on the take.
The decline is present all across the EU; economic growth is stagnating. So, why would the elites view migrants as a resource rather than mere tools for deconstructing western society? I would ask: What if a broad population increase is useful for events that have not yet occurred?
What if world war is still on the table, or an economic collapse followed by globalist consolidation? What if European leaders see millions of extra bodies as a valuable resource to feed that war, or control the citizenry at home? Is mass immigration just about cultural replacement? Or, are third worlders being lured into the west with promises of easy plunder, only to be caught up as cannon fodder in a future conflict?
Have the globalists placed their bets on foreign hordes and the power of cheap labor (or cheap soldiers) as the key to victory?
This brings us to what appears to be the US strategy in preparation for the schism, and it’s not hard to see, it involves oil. The move on Iran is clearly the catalyst for a US program of energy dominance. Consider for a moment the insane geopolitical changes and energy market mutations that have happened in just the past few months.
Venezuela is now under new leadership and shipping oil to the US, while China has mostly been cut out. Trump has been engaging with Panama to dramatically reduce Chinese influence over canal operations, again, cutting the CCP out of the western hemisphere.
Trump’s visit to China this week was filled with grand gestures and diplomatic talk for the cameras, but what really happened behind closed doors? One has to expect that the CCP is very unhappy.
Canada under globalist Mark Carney refuses to negotiate a tariff deal with the US and is trying to form bilateral trade agreements with Europe and China (to Canada’s detriment). This could lead to direct hostilities between the US and Canada if Carney tries to use oil agreements as leverage against Trump, or if he tries to give China access to Canadian soil.
The war with Iran has led to the UAE leaving OPEC, which essentially signals the end of OPEC and an incoming flood of oil to global markets at lower prices once the war is over (which the US will benefit from). It’s a shock in energy markets that has not happened in decades. It also disrupts the globalist climate agenda and their bid for artificial scarcity.
Iran is where the division between the globalists in Europe and conservatives in the US becomes undeniable. Why didn’t European elites immediately jump on board with the Iran war and the effort to control the Strait of Hormuz. They supported every other war in the Middle East from 2001 onward. With Iran, they’ve tried to undermine the US every step of the way.
We know for a fact that Europe’s leadership is devoid of moral principle or conditions of conscience. Their rhetoric and behavior when it comes to Iran and the Hormuz indicates they want the US to fail, not because they disagree with the war, but because they don’t want the US to gain an edge in energy dominance.
US operations against the regimes in Venezuela and Iran are choking energy supplies to China (the most useful economic and military ally for Europe in the event of conflict with the US). This is detrimental to the Europeans IF they are preparing for deeper hostilities with the US in the future.
NATO is now likely to break apart. Trump is threatening to pull troops from Europe and may shut down military bases entirely. Tariff salvos are going to increase. European governments are cracking down on their own citizens for expressing conservative and nationalist views. The lines are forming.
I would not be surprised to see talk of kinetic conflict between America and Europe in the next few years. Unless, something spectacular happens in the near term and the citizens of Europe take their countries back (most EU countries have to wait until 2027-2029 for elections). After endless abuse by the liberal establishment, if there was a war, millions of Europeans would likely welcome the US with open arms.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
