Overrated political pollster Frank Luntz admitted last week that he was wrong to prematurely dismiss a Trump comeback. “Not only can Donald Trump win the GOP primary again, but he can also win the presidency again,” Luntz tweeted.
Luntz has always struck me as a pretend statistician whose real role is to shill for whatever the Republican side of the Uniparty needs voters to support. He peddles Deep State lies to ordinary Americans as truth. He wears a bad toupee, eats his feelings, and is more believable as Chris Farley’s “man in a van down by the river” than House speaker McCarthy’s former landlord. Still, as unexceptional as Luntz is at polling, he’s the go-to guy for Club D.C. when the ruling class needs to brainwash normal people. Of course our unpopular policies are popular; Frank Luntz says they are, and he is Science…and Mathematics! Cringe.
I still remember watching Luntz sitting in the front row of Stephen Colbert’s 2016 Election Night show solemnly insisting through most of the evening that Donald Trump had no chance of winning. The whole spectacle was intended to be a celebratory yuk-fest for leftists to pat themselves on the backs for being so righteous and brilliant while sticking it to Trump voters and laughing at their misery. Why a supposedly Republican-leaning pollster would have found enjoyment sitting through a Hillary Clinton coronation reveling in Republican grief is beyond me — unless these Republican-ishy squishes are perhaps Uniparty agents and conservative in name only! Could it be?
Anyway, President Trump was winning one battleground state after the next (this was before full-on mail-in-ballot election-rigging), Colbert’s pluck had turned to tears, and the polling man from the van down by the river was still insisting that Hillary Clinton was certain to win. He looked like some mad fool standing on the top deck of the Titanic in the North Atlantic wondering why anyone would abandon ship for such a tiny leak. It’s just a little bit of ice, Luntz kept insisting. What’s the big deal?
Colbert didn’t mean for the night to be funny, but it was downright hilarious. It was the closest thing to the kind of genius the Monty Python boys regularly created back in the days before Europe and America declared war on free speech. Wimpy Stephen’s confident tough-guy shtick melted before the cameras. Democrat voters in the live studio audience gnashed their teeth, grimaced, and cried. And there sat ol’ Frank, still shaking his head and predicting Clinton victory. Sheesh, when the Deep State says the fix is in, paid propagandists expect their compromised opinions to look like sophisticated punditry!
So when the guy who resembles a street vendor selling Chicago Red Hots tells the world that Donald Trump can win again, we’re less interested in his “expert” opinion than the reason he has been paid to announce his opinion. In this case, it appears that Sloppy Frank has been sent out to sound the alarm that Trump’s threat to the swamp is real and will require even more aggressive countermeasures than the banana republic indictments that the Department of (in)Justice has already deployed. As The Sydney Morning Herald warns apocalyptically, “Leading US pollster Frank Luntz says Donald Trump can re-win the presidency and that if that happens, US democracy could collapse.”
To make sure that the globe’s über-elite take action before the 2024 presidential election becomes a 2016 sequel, Less-than-Frank went into screechy-sweaty-panic-mode during the Margaret Thatcher conference at the Center for Policy Studies in London. In an interview with Australia’s newspaper of record, Luntz hyperventilated, “It’s now conceivable that in 2024 the country comes apart.” Ooh, but his opinion must represent Science!, so he added numbers: “We have a 15-percent likelihood of that destroying American democracy depending on what happens.” Yikes, at least we have an 85% chance of saving democracy! — whatever that is.
“NATO is in jeopardy,” Luntz continued. “Ukraine will no longer receive American support. Our legal system will be in jeopardy — I don’t want to contemplate it.” Don’t worry, Frank. The D.C. Deep State won’t ever give up on forever-wars. As for our legal system being in jeopardy — hahahahaha — that ship sailed long ago once the American people could see with their own eyes the federal government’s rampant political persecution and the reality of two-tiered “justice” under a one-party State. Can’t put the toothpaste back into that depleted tube.
Needless to say, Luntz’s 180 degree flip-flop from his own “expert” opinion of just last year, when he confidently predicted that Trump is toast, came off more like a barely-disguised call to arms begging for more foreign election interference, left-wing shock troop mobilization, and World Economic Forum funding. For the global “elites,” taking down Trump is even more vital than saving Ukraine. To beat back Russia, we must first beat back the guy we framed as a Russian agent! Globalists, Antifa terrorists, warmongers, and child-groomers, for the sake of One World Government, unite! It is as if Luntz went to London to rally the English-speaking peoples against their Trumpian foe — except Luntz comes off, at best, as Shakespeare’s fat, vain Falstaff and certainly nothing like King Henry V!
It is always bewildering to watch Luntz and his ilk claim that any Trump election victory will mean the end of “democracy.” Are democratic elections self-defeating? Should we pre-emptively end “democracy” in order to save it from the people who might inadvertently destroy it? Quick, someone fetch a dictator who would be willing to rule over Americans until they accept Luntz’s officially sanctioned “truths.” As he says, “that’s how voters vote correctly.” Americans will be granted the privilege of “representation” in government only if they choose candidates first vetted and approved by the Deep State! Wait, what? Newspeak doublethink is tough.
If Luntz were honest, he would admit that it is not Trump who poses a threat to America’s system of government, but rather all the Deep State saboteurs, foreign interlopers, and Antifa domestic terrorists who refuse to let ordinary Americans have their say.
It was the Intelligence Community and (in)Justice Department, after all, that conspired with Hillary Clinton’s campaign to polarize an already divided nation with fraudulent claims that Donald Trump was neck-deep in international espionage as a Russian spy. It was Democrat liars such as Adam Schiff who blamed Hillary’s election loss on Russian bots. It was RINO liars such as Mitt Romney who inexplicably blamed Joe Biden’s Ukraine bribery scandals on President Trump. It was Antifa and Black Lives Matter that laid siege to the White House and burned down cities across the country. It was the politicized American intelligence agencies and their press corps marionettes that covered up Biden family corruption. It was a cabal of election manipulators who induced fear over COVID to implement a mail-in ballot (s)election with scant security. It was a bloc of social media companies that censored Americans from reporting on 2020 election fraud. It was congressional Robespierres such as Liz Cheney who called for patriotic J6 election protesters to be treated as “insurrectionists” and “terrorists.” It is Merrick Garland’s DOJ faction that has hunted down and imprisoned Trump-supporters. It is the Biden junta that now seeks to lock up President Trump for life.
Luntz might not care who set the country on fire, but the rest of America knows.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
