(The Economic Collapse Blog)—Are you getting prepared? Right now, millions of Americans are stockpiling food and supplies in anticipation of what they believe is coming. People are on edge due to the approaching election, the rapidly escalating war in the Middle East, the alarming natural disasters that we have been witnessing all around the world, and the potential for another great global pandemic. In all my years, I have never seen more concern about the next 12 months as I am seeing at this moment. There is a growing consensus that major history changing events are about to happen, and there are lots and lots of people that want to be well prepared. In fact, Newsweek has reported that “doomsday prepping” has become a 2.46 billion dollar industry…
The once-fringe act of doomsday prepping is evolving into a booming $2.46 billion industry, tapping into a societal pulse of self-reliance amidst a world of uncertainties.
Whether driven by the aftershocks of a post-COVID-19 environment, supply-chain disruptions, natural calamities, or geopolitical tensions, the narrative of disaster preparedness is shifting from the outskirts of society to mainstream households.
When I was growing up, I never once heard the words “prepper” or “prepping”.
But now a very large portion of the population is actively preparing for the collapse of society.
According to numbers that come from FEMA, approximately 20 million Americans have prepared well enough to be able to be on their own for at least a month…
According to an analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency data, some 20 million Americans can withstand a full month of self-reliance. Within that number, there are those who identify as part of “preppers” communities online, which include enthusiasts stocking up on years’ worth of supplies or building bunkers.
Of course being prepared to survive for one month is not going to be nearly good enough to survive what is eventually coming.
But at least it is something.
These days, even Costco is marketing to preppers…
Amid Costo’s already stocked shelves of oversized jars of peanut butter and 12-pack macaroni and cheeses, there’s a hardcore new addition that is lighting up social media: The Readywise 150 Serving Emergency Food Bucket. For $100, the bucket includes 80 dinners, 30 breakfasts, and 40 energy drinks with a shelf life of—prepare yourself for this—25 long years.
“In a world where unpredictability has become a constant,” reads the description, “our assortment takes on a vital role in emergency preparedness. Imagine the sudden onset of severe weather, the challenges of unexpected job transitions, or the unsettling thought of food shortages.”
In addition to selling emergency food buckets, Costco has also become “a huge seller of gold and silver bars and coins”…
The wholesale club is also a huge seller of gold and silver bars and coins, which are extremely popular among those who are concerned about a breakdown of the financial system. (A one-ounce silver coin is currently worth about $30.)
Needless to say, it isn’t just Costco that has embraced this trend.
These days, many local supermarkets carry emergency food right on their store shelves. And I think that is a great thing.
But for what we are eventually going to be going through, you are going to need a whole lot more than just food.
If you really want to be well prepared, you should consider everything that you will need if there is no power and you can no longer get anything from the stores because supply chains have completely broken down.
I have shared a list of 50 basic things that I believe that everyone should be stockpiling in a couple of my books, and today I would like to share that list with all of you…
- A Conventional Generator And A Solar Generator
- A Berkey Water Filter
- A Rainwater Collection System If You Do Not Have A Natural Supply Of Water Near Your Home
- A Large Emergency Medical Kit
- Rice
- Pasta
- Canned Soup
- Canned Vegetables
- Canned Fruit
- Canned Chicken
- Jars Of Peanut Butter
- Salt
- Sugar
- Powdered Milk
- Bags Of Flour
- Yeast
- Lots Of Extra Coffee (If You Drink It)
- Buckets Of Long-Term Storable Food
- Lots Of Extra Vitamins
- Lighters Or Matches
- Candles
- Flashlights Or Lanterns
- Plenty Of Wood To Burn
- Extra Blankets
- Extra Sleeping Bags
- Ammunition
- Extra Fans If You Live In A Hot Climate
- Hand Sanitizer
- Toilet Paper
- Extra Soap And Shampoo
- Extra Toothpaste
- Extra Razors
- Bottles Of Bleach
- A Battery-Powered Radio
- Extra Batteries
- Solar Chargers
- Trash Bags
- Tarps
- A Pocket Knife
- A Hammer
- An Axe
- A Shovel
- Work Gloves
- Lots Of Warm Socks
- Seeds For A Garden
- Canning Jars
- Extra Supplies For Your Pets
- A Substantial Emergency Supply Of Cash
- Bibles For Every Member Of Your Family
- A “Bug Out Bag” For Every Member Of Your Family
There are some important points that I want to make about this list.
First of all, this is not a comprehensive list. It is simply a starting point. Second, preparation is going to look different for everyone. Your unique circumstances will dictate what “getting prepared” looks like for you. Third, you will not need your emergency food and supplies yet.
You will not need them tomorrow. You will not need them next week. You will not need them next month. But the day is most certainly coming when you will need them.
If you wait until then to get prepared, you will be out of luck. Getting sufficiently prepared for what is approaching takes an enormous amount of time, effort and energy. But it will be worth it.
We are moving into times of immense societal chaos. This election is going to tear our country apart, vast numbers of people will die during the wars and famines that are ahead of us, it is just a matter of time before the next global pandemic strikes, and if you live long enough you are going to get to witness cataclysmic natural disasters that are beyond anything that Hollywood has ever dreamed up.
Right now, we are still only in the very early stages of this “perfect storm”, but I fully expect global events to start moving very, very rapidly in the coming months.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.



