According to the latest RealClearPolitics national average, Kamala Harris has a 1.8-point lead. Democrats are no doubt thrilled about this, but they really shouldn’t be. Harris is running way behind both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2020 and 2016 elections.
But I’m here to talk about Nate Silver’s latest forecast. In the previous forecast I reported on, from August 31, Donald Trump held a 53.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris trailed with 46.6%. This was because Trump maintained the advantage in key swing states, with the odds showing him with a 52-48% edge in the most important swing state: Pennsylvania.
In Silver’s latest forecast from Tuesday, Trump’s chances of winning rose to 56.7%, the highest since July 31, while Harris’s chances dropped to 43.0%. In key swing states, Trump continued to strengthen his lead. He has a 57-43% advantage in Pennsylvania, 64-36% in Georgia, 67-33% in Arizona, 70-30% in North Carolina, and 57-43% in Nevada. Harris’s odds of winning are best in Michigan and Wisconsin, where her chances of winning were 51-49% and 53-47%, respectively.
Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/3)
Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)
🟦 Harris: 43.0%
——
Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 67-33%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 70-30%
Nevada – 🔴… https://t.co/QZjx9HVZ5n pic.twitter.com/p2hIdVZ2Gt— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 3, 2024
Perhaps the most significant thing about this latest projection update is that Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College are still trending upward despite Silver taking polls from ActiVote out of his model after their polling recently showed a boost for Trump. […]
— Read More: pjmedia.com
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