We’ve been covering a lot of the polls, focus groups, betting markets, and other indicators in regard to the election.
But there was a funny catfight between two people who are election prognosticators, Professor Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver.
Lichtman has a system where he applies true or false questions to 13 questions. if there are six or more false answers, the challenger — in this case, former President Donald Trump — would win. But Lichtman has interpreted his keys and he’s predicting Kamala Harris will win.
This is how he’s interpreted the keys:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
- Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
- Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
- Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects [sic] major changes in national policy. TRUE
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
- Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
[…]
— Read More: redstate.com
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