In a recent revelation that has caught the attention of the political betting world, a mysterious trader known as the “French Trump Whale” has made headlines by wagering an astonishing $40 million on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election. In an exclusive interview, Stephan Tompson, the founder of Visegrád 24, tracked down the trader, who identified himself as Theo, to uncover his motivations and insights behind this massive bet.
Theo stated unequivocally, “I’m not supporting Trump. I’m just observing that Trump has a 90% chance of winning this election and a 65% chance of winning the popular vote.” This assertion is rooted in his belief that the predictive betting markets significantly differ from traditional polls, which he feels often underestimate Trump’s electoral support.
He explained the mechanics of these predictive markets, stating, “One is calculating what are the intentions of the people to vote. The other are bets made by real people with real money about who they believe the winner will be.” This distinction is crucial, as it highlights how financial stakes can reveal what some believe are a more accurate gauge of potential election outcomes than public opinion polls, which, frankly, haven’t been particularly reliable in recent cycles.
Delving deeper into his reasoning, Theo reflected on the media’s treatment of Trump’s support, claiming that they are repeating the mistakes made in 2016 and 2020.
“In August, I started to realize that media outlets are making the same mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020: underestimating the Trump vote,” Theo said. “Why? Because again, it’s underestimating the shy Trump vote effect.” […]
— Read More: pjmedia.com
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