As the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision approaches, investors are adopting a defensive posture, gravitating towards sectors perceived as safe havens. This shift comes on the heels of a robust first half of the year, largely driven by the performance of major technology stocks.
In early September, shares in real estate, utilities, and consumer staples have emerged as top performers. Gold prices continue to rise, and government bond yields are on track for their most significant monthly decline since December, indicating a flight to safety as bond prices increase.
“It’s really been something to see,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group, commenting on the market’s rotation towards defensive assets.
Concerns surrounding the U.S. economy’s health, the potential scale of forthcoming interest rate cuts, and the upcoming November presidential election have led some investors to exercise caution.
The latest inflation report did little to alleviate these worries. Core inflation, which excludes the often-volatile food and energy sectors, came in slightly above expectations, prompting a sharp decline in stocks and bond yields before a late-day recovery.
Since early August, markets have struggled to maintain stability, particularly as some of Wall Street’s favored trades began to unwind and data indicated a potential cooling in the labor market. Major indexes have experienced significant one-day fluctuations, yet the S&P 500 remains only 2% below its July peak and has gained 16% year-to-date.
The once-dominant Magnificent Seven tech stocks have also seen a decline in momentum. Nvidia, for instance, has dropped 7% since its earnings report on August 28, despite posting quarterly earnings and sales that more than doubled—a growth rate that has slowed from the previous year’s rapid pace.
The recent market reordering has positioned the utilities sector in close competition with technology as the top-performing group in the S&P 500 for 2024, with both sectors up over 20%.
The Fed is widely anticipated to initiate interest rate cuts at its upcoming meeting. Investors believe that the unexpected rise in core inflation strengthens the case for a modest quarter-percentage point cut rather than a more aggressive half-point reduction. According to CME Group, the likelihood of a larger rate cut has decreased to about 15%, down from 34% earlier in the week.
As interest rates are poised to decline, the attractive dividend yields offered by defensive stocks become increasingly appealing. The real estate sector of the S&P 500 currently boasts a yield of 3%, followed closely by utilities at 2.9% and consumer staples at 2.2%.
“If you’re going to buy something that might have upside from an equity perspective, but it’s also going to give you money to sit and wait, it’s not a bad place to do it,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
Bank of America strategists have advised clients to increase their exposure to utilities and real estate, predicting these sectors will benefit from a lower interest rate environment due to their attractive dividends.
Defensive stocks, such as those in real estate, utilities, and consumer staples, are favored because consumers prioritize essential expenses like rent, utility bills, and household goods, even when they cut back on discretionary spending.
Gold has reached new all-time highs since March, driven by a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. Lower interest rates enhance gold’s appeal, as it does not yield income, making it more attractive compared to dividend-paying stocks and interest-bearing bonds. Gold prices have risen 23% this year, outpacing the S&P 500.
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The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled at 3.653% on Wednesday, marking the second-lowest level of 2024. Bond yields typically decline as prices rise, and investors often seek the safety of U.S. Treasurys during turbulent market conditions.
Meanwhile, the S&P Global Investment Manager Index’s risk appetite reading has dropped to its lowest level since May 2023. This monthly survey, which gathers insights from approximately 300 institutional investors, reveals concerns about valuations, political uncertainty, and recession risks.
Despite the current market dynamics, stocks appear historically expensive. The S&P 500 is trading at 21 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, compared to its 10-year average of 18.
The pressing question for investors is whether the current surge in defensive assets is a temporary trend or the beginning of a new market regime.
“We’ve gone through a few of these headfakes, but we think this one is real because rates are going to start coming down,” said Emerson Ham III, senior partner at Sound View Wealth Advisors. “If you get a rally where you’ve got defensive names doing well but also technology performing on a fundamental basis, that’s kind of the best of both worlds.”
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