Democrats should brace for a shock four weeks from now—the possibility not just of a victory for former President Donald Trump but a win so big Trump even beats Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote.
Trump doesn’t need to do that, of course: He can return to the White House just by winning enough battleground states.
But if he does get more votes than Harris nationwide, it will prove he is more popular than ever and his message is even more powerful than it was when he overcame former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump’s path to this next upset runs through the House of Representatives. His chances of success in the popular vote are intimately linked to the GOP’s prospects of extending its House majority.
Democrats only need a net gain of five seats to retake the House, yet there’s reason to think they won’t get that even if Harris wins the presidential race. After all, when President Joe Biden received more than 81 million votes four years ago, Democrats still lost 13 seats in Congress.
Trump and the Republicans are almost two parties, allied but distinct, and not every Trump voter bothers to turn out for other Republicans when Trump isn’t on the ballot.
That hurt Republicans in the last midterm elections, just as Trump’s presence helped the party in 2020, when polls seriously underestimated GOP turnout. But if congressional Republicans need Trump, now he knows he needs them too.
He learned the indelible lesson at the end of his last term that a Democratic House will impeach him, regardless of whether it can get the Senate to convict him. This time a GOP majority’s survival is in the balance, and Trump is motivated to save it. […]
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