Even though central banks all over the world have been raising interest rates in recent months, food prices just continue to go up. There are a couple of reasons why this is happening. First of all, demand for food is very inelastic. In other words, no matter how high or how low prices go, people are still going to need to eat. So even if the Federal Reserve sent interest rates into the stratosphere, people would still need to go the supermarket to get food for themselves and their families. Secondly, we are facing some severe long-term supply problems. As I have detailed in previous articles, food production is being significantly hindered in a number of different ways, and that isn’t going to change any time soon. There simply is not enough food to feed everyone on the planet, and supplies are only going to get tighter in the months and years ahead. No matter what central banks do, this is going to push food prices steadily higher.
But even though higher interest rates haven’t had much of an impact on food prices, we knew that they would dramatically affect western economies in many other ways. Economic activity is starting to dry up all over the western world, and as I discussed the other day, Europe has already plunged into a recession.
In addition, higher interest rates have burst the global housing bubble, and here in the United States we have entered what will ultimately become the greatest commercial real estate crisis in our entire history.
On top of everything else, hundreds of small and mid-size banks are now struggling to survive because higher rates have blown giant black holes in their balance sheets.
After seeing all the damage that they have caused, officials at the Federal Reserve finally decided to “pause” their interest rate hiking campaign on Wednesday…
Federal Reserve policymakers left the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged despite inflation that has run above its target for over two years, saying the pause would allow it to gauge the effects of earlier hikes on the economy.
The Fed said on Wednesday that it would hold its benchmark rate at a range of five percent to 5.25 percent, the range it set at its May meeting and the highest since the Fed cut rates at the summer of 2007. At the same time, the Fed signaled that it expects to hike at least two more times this year.
If they had any sense, they would start cutting rates.
But that probably won’t happen for a while.
The good news is that higher rates have crushed economic activity enough that the overall rate of inflation has started to come down…
Overall, consumer prices increased 4% from a year earlier, down from 4.9% in April and a 40-year high of 9.1% last June, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index.
Of course you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt.
If the inflation rate was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would still be well into double digits right now.
And when you look at core CPI, it has “barely budged” over the past year…
And when you dig into core CPI, the news isn’t nearly so good. In fact, it’s downright bad.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.4% month-on-month. On an annual basis, core CPI rose by 5.3%.
To put that number into perspective, the core CPI increase in May 2022 was 6%. That means the increase in core CPI has barely budged.
That is very troubling.
And what is even more troubling is the fact that food prices in the U.S. just continue to go up…
But what the data also revealed is that food prices continue to increase. According to the new government data, food at home prices went up 5.8% for the year ending in May. For food away from home, prices have jumped 8.3%.
Once again, it is important to remember that the way inflation is calculated has changed dramatically over the decades.
If food inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, those numbers would be way into the double digits.
And even with all of the massaging that they do to the numbers these days, there are certain categories of food where the official numbers that we have been given actually show double digit inflation on a yearly basis…
Frozen vegetables (18.7%)
Frozen drinks (15.8%)
Bread (12.5%)
Fats and oils (11.8%)
Candy (11.6%)
Cakes, cookies and cupcakes (11%)
Baby food and formula (10.1)
The cost of living has been escalating much faster than our paychecks have, and this is putting enormous financial stress on American families.
Thanks to the rapidly rising cost of living, more U.S. adults than ever are being forced to find a “side hustle”…
As many as two in five adults in the U.S. have a side hustle, according to a recent Bankrate survey of 2,500-plus adults, backing up LendingTree data from earlier this year that found side gigs are up by 13% over the past two years and recent Deloitte data that found more millennials and Gen Zers are adding on part-time jobs. Younger workers are more likely to need an extra job: 53% of Gen Zers and half of millennials have one, Bankrate finds, compared to only 40% of Gen Xers and 24% of baby boomers.
It’s a reflection of the state of the economy, which has left many Americans—even those earning six figures—feeling like they’re living paycheck to paycheck. At the end of the day, side hustles have become a necessity for many who are struggling to compete with the pace of inflation and trying to save amid recession fears.
And food inflation is also one of the reasons why demand at food banks around the nation has been absolutely exploding in recent months.
For example, just check out what is happening in one area of Oklahoma…
Food banks across Green Country are seeing a spike in the number of people using their services.
Two issues are at play: it’s more expensive to make ends meet because of inflation and emergency SNAP benefits are ending.
Just since March, the food bank said there’s been a 50-percent increase in people who need help.
Unfortunately, this isn’t just happening in the United States.
In fact, food inflation is a much bigger problem over in Europe right now…
Whether in Spain, Hungary, or Italy, food prices keep rising in Europe even as inflation relents. Food inflation reached a historic peak in March, up 19.2% over the previous year, and fell to 12.5% in May. Governments across the continent are trying to come up with solutions: Spain waived its 5% tax on food products, France reached a three-month pricing agreement with supermarkets, and Croatia mandated price controls.
But the interventions don’t seem to be sufficient, and even staples or typical products are affected. In Italy, the price of pasta has surged by 14% in the past year, twice as much as overall inflation, and the nation’s tables are paying a steep price for higher energy costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with the resulting wheat shortages.
All over the world, food prices are moving up faster than wages are.
And the outlook for global food production in 2023 is not promising.
Sadly, this is just the very beginning of this crisis. In my latest book I spend several chapters detailing a number of nightmarish long-term trends that are going to absolutely crush global food production during the years to come.
No matter what our leaders do now, global famine is inevitable.
We aren’t able to feed everyone in the world right now, and global food supplies are only going to get tighter.
But most people don’t understand the long-term trends that we are facing.
Most people just assume that the “bumps in the road” that we are currently facing are just temporary and that everything will be “just fine” in the long run.
Don’t be one of those people.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
