(DCNF)—The steady decline of birth rates in the U.S. creates considerable concerns for the future of the American economy, which relies on a robust working-age population, according to experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Birth rates have steadily declined for a number of years in the U.S. and currently total around 12 births per 1,000 people, which is lower than the 14.2 birth average seen in 2000 and far lower than 24.3 in 1950, according to Macrotrends. The decline in birth rates poses major issues for long-standing economic and government institutions that depend on larger labor forces, but the worst of the effects could be avoided if proper policy actions, like addressing runaway government spending and entitlement programs and investing in measures that improve productivity, are taken, experts told the DCNF.
“Declining birth rates are a major problem for America. Our greatest economic resource is not land, or water, or energy, but people,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the DCNF. “Fewer births mean less economic growth, all else being equal. Additionally, we face another problem in many of our entitlement programs, which have been set up like Ponzi schemes, such as Social Security. These programs require a much higher birth rate than we currently have in order to prolong their solvency. We are already seeing this effect, with major entitlements moving toward insolvency faster than previously anticipated because the birth rate has been so low.”
Both the federal and state governments are facing huge debts and unfunded liabilities in terms of entitlement spending like Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security and pensions. Working-age populations have increasingly been unable to provide the necessary funding for these programs as the number of older Americans grows, resulting in more than $90 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
There is a strong correlation between higher incomes and lower birth rates, with countries where gross domestic product per capita is below $1,000 per year usually seeing women give birth to more than three children, while women in countries with $10,000 per year tend to have no more than two children, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Economists speculate about a number of different reasons why this relationship exists, such as the cost of educating children in richer countries, higher infant mortality and people in poorer countries more commonly having to take care of their parents as they age.
“It is possible for a shrinking, aging society to maintain and increase prosperity, but that isn’t going to happen automatically,” Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt chair in political economy at the American Enterprise Institute, told the DCNF. “We’ve got reasons to be cautiously confident, since there are constantly improving technological possibilities, since in general, we kind of hope that health is going to be improving. And since, in general, we think that education is going to be improving. All of those things can lay the foundation for more productive, wealthier Americans, even if the headcount is shrinking.”
Demographically, Japan is done pic.twitter.com/HN70JndcKn
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 28, 2024
Investors have been increasingly optimistic that technology related to artificial intelligence (AI) will be able to generate huge increases in productivity, with semiconductor companies leading the charge on AI, like Nvidia, seeing massive gains in stock prices in the last few years.
“What does not work so well is when you have some of the things we see today, with health stagnation, with troubles in education, with a completely feckless inattention to budget discipline in our public finances,” Eberstadt told the DCNF. “Those are not the sorts of things that are going to help lay the foundations for an increasingly prosperous country.”
Government debt has continued to grow at a fast pace under the past few administrations, currently totaling nearly $34.4 trillion, according to the Treasury Department. The U.S. added over $800 billion to the national debt in just the fourth quarter of 2023 and spent $659 billion on debt payments in the fiscal year.
“If this continues, the symptoms here in America will grow to the same magnitude as in Japan, China, Korea, and others,” Antoni told the DCNF. “Legal immigration has helped alleviate the problems of America’s low birth rate, but illegal aliens are actually exacerbating the problem. Not only are the latter less likely to pay taxes than legal immigrants, but they’re also eligible for government handouts in several more liberal states. Thus, they simultaneously generate less revenue while adding to outlays.”
The employment level of foreign-born workers in the U.S. has climbed from 27,697,000 in February 2020 to 29,842,000 in 2024, while the level of native-born workers has declined from 130,320,000 to 129,807,000 in that same time frame, according to FRED. In the 2023 fiscal year, Customs and Border Protection saw more than two million encounters at the southern border.
Japan has long experienced issues of an aging population and declining birth rates, with the number of births reaching an all-time low in 2023 and current trends indicating that the country’s population could shrink 30% by 2070, according to Independent. The country has experienced widespread economic trouble since the 1990’s, with some referring to 1991–2011 as the Lost Decades, according to Investopedia.
“Over the long term, a shrinking labor force is going to put a constraint on US economic performance,” Eberstadt told the DCNF. “How much of a constraint it puts on US economic performance is going to depend upon a lot of other things we do politically, like how we schedule and structure our entitlements, the sorts of incentives and the sorts of arrangements we make for our national health care incentives.”
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Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
