Is it too early to wargame the 2028 Electoral College? Of course it is, don’t be silly — that’s why we’re going to look at 2032 today.
It’s too soon to look at 2028 because we don’t even know who the players are but ’32 is ripe because we’re halfway to the next congressional apportionment and are getting a good idea of how the biggest player in the game — the Electoral College map — is changing.
So there’s a new census at the start of each new decade and with it, Congress’s 435 seats are apportioned among the several states and, this being a zero-sum game, there are winners and losers.
According to the latest from The American Redistricting Project (ARP), the losers might as well be “bluesers” and the winners are (almost) all in the red.
GOP bastions Idaho and Utah should gain one seat each. But Florida and Texas — wow. A gain of four seats each. Florida only caught up to New York after the 2010 census and by 2030 will be one-third larger. Impressive as that is, Florida’s representation was actually delayed by Census Bureau undercounts in the 2020 census. Texas was undercounted by more than half a million people and Florida by 761,000. Those undercounts cost them one seat each. Overcounts helped Minnesota and Rhode Island hang on to seats they shouldn’t have. […]
— Read More: pjmedia.com
