(Alt-Market)—As much as many centrists and libertarians are opposed to Donald Trump’s ongoing strikes against Iran, I have to say, the downstream result might end up becoming one of the most libertarian results I have ever seen. For decades, small government activists like those in the Ron Paul movement have been calling for a comprehensive US divorce from NATO and the shutdown of America’s military bases overseas. Trump has, either deliberately or inadvertently, set this very process in motion.
The refusal of most of Europe (and Australia) to provide support in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz might seem like geopolitical orbiting – In other words, getting involved could hurt them more than it would help them. Of course, these nations are far more exposed to the Hormuz closure and the slowdown in energy exports than the US. You would think their interests would demand a securing of the strait.
Europe is already struggling for energy resources due to the Ukraine war (a war they are deeply involved in), and this is where we stumble upon the ideological disconnect.
Europe’s Goal Is WWIII And They Expect America To Maintain The Status Quo
Europeans are perfectly willing to engage in war tensions with Russia while risking energy inflation and WWIII, all over a country that had minimal strategic or economic importance to them before the conflict. They have consistently called on the US to provide weapons and funding and intel to the Ukrainians, which we have obliged. And, they have called for American troops to stand at the forefront should a wider war erupt.
NATO and European governments love America…but only as a shield that benefits them. To be clear, it’s true that years ago NATO allies invested troops and equipment into the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but one could also argue that, at that time, the establishment was in sync on both sides of the Atlantic.
There was no large scale movement to cut foreign aid scams (like Trump shutting down USAID). There was no movement to secure borders and prevent mass immigration. There was no movement against globalism beyond a handful of us in the alternative media working diligently to expose the truth. In the era of the early 2000s, the status quo was in full effect and Europe was happy to help in the Middle East.
Today? Not so much. The status quo has been disrupted.
Once The Cash Stopped Flowing Our “Friends” Became Scarce
It’s not surprising that once the cash stopped flowing so easily from American pockets, suddenly all of our “allies” went sour. Cuts to USAID and various foreign subsidy programs have created a shockwave in the global order. Even I have been stunned by the level of dependency of foreign nations on US monetary injections.
Once these programs started shutting down, the panic was palpable. And, once Trump demanded NATO countries start paying their fair share (5% of GDP), the breakdown in relations began. Many European social welfare programs exist exactly because they don’t have to pay for their own military defense.
The tariffs are another point of hypocrisy. Nearly ALL major European countries and economies have enforced tariffs and duties on US products for the past 60 years. When those same countries face tariffs imposed by the US, suddenly tariffs are an “act of aggression” and a line in the sand.
Trump is called an economic “bull in a china shop”, but he’s only doing to them what they’ve been doing to us for generations. Once again, the moment the status quo changes even a little and other nations are held to a similar standard, our friends no longer want to be our friends.
Europe’s Top Priority Is The Multicultural Agenda
And what about mass immigration? Ah, there’s the real divisive issue. Europe has become ground zero for a multicultural plague and EU governments are absolutely willing to sacrifice their own indigenous and largely white population to high crime, terrorism and cultural erasure in the name of a woke Utopia. The moment the US defied this ideological suicide and cracked down on open borders, the European elites turned hostile.
Europe is so enraged by any opposition to multiculturalism that they have implemented a series of Orwellian censorship laws. Tens-of-thousands of people are arrested and charged each year for “hate crimes”, which usually involve basic criticisms of open immigration. These are not governments we can break bread with.
I would point out that there are millions of people in the EU and the UK who are fighting against globalism on the political stage. Their movements are growing rapidly, from the “Restore” party in Britain to the National Rally in France and the AfD in Germany. They don’t necessarily agree with American conservatives an everything, but they are the only political groups worth aligning with in Europe today. All of them are gaining ground, but not fast enough.
Perhaps a separation from the US will actually help expedite the process? Because there is no possible way that Americans can remain in alliance with liberal European elites that want to see western culture and national borders destroyed. We’re not just at an impasse in principle, we are quickly becoming mortal enemies.
Trump’s recent call for NATO support in the Hormuz has exposed a level of hypocrisy within the organization that many libertarians and conservatives have been criticizing for years. NATO is only NATO so long as America is the rube making the bulk of the sacrifices.
Keep in mind that nothing liberal governments do is based on principle. War with Russia in Ukraine? Europe applauds and demands extensive US involvement. Send some ships to reopen a vital shipping lane in the Middle East? Suddenly they have moral qualms.
Why? There’s a lot of reasons, but I would argue that a great change is happening; an organized shift of the old world order into the “new world order”. There is a “multicultural alliance” (a globalist system) being built behind the scenes that is more important to the European elites than their relationship with the US. And, conservative movements are the enemy of this new multicultural system.
The Muslim population in Europe is currently 62 million – the stats have doubled in the past 20 years. There are 47 million third world migrants living in the region. Mass immigration has changed Europe irrevocably. At bottom, this social engineering experiment is designed to eradicate western civilization and it is THE HILL that leftists and globalists are willing to die on. Their entire vision for the future depends on it.
NATO governments are avoiding engagement in Iran, not because of some profound and principled moral stand, but because most European nations are saturated with third world immigrants who will turn on them if they enter the war in any way.
In my article “Britain Is Proof: Globalists Plan To Use Migrants As A Mercenary Army Against The West”, published in 2024, I outlined in detail the theory that European governments (and the Biden Administration in the US) were packing their borders with third world military age males to act as a covertly deployed, foreign mercenary army to subdue western populations should they rise up in revolt against the globalists.
European governments, and by extension most of NATO, are onboard with this plan. This is why war with Russia is fine, but war with Iran is not. This is also why I don’t buy into the conspiracy that the Israelis are at the top of the pyramid “controlling everything” from behind the scenes. If they were, then the European and NATO elites would have immediately joined the war effort against Iran.
There is an agenda afoot that is FAR bigger than the tiny nation of Israel or the marginal ideology of “Zionism”.
The Breakup Is Inevitable
The latest conflict is quickly leading to a breakup of NATO, with the Trump Administration broaching the topic on several occasions. After being denied use of airspace by a number of EU countries, it is possible that the US will seriously consider shutting down military bases in the region, remove nuclear weapons and leave Europe high and dry.
But, this international divorce is not about Iran, Israel, the Strait of Hormuz or even oil. It’s the result of a long running ideological clash that’s about to hit a crescendo.
One could argue that this will isolate the US from its allies and weaken our position in the world. I would argue that it’s our so-called “allies” that have been weakening us, and this separation is long overdue. The billions upon billions of dollars that the US spends annually to secure Europe could be used to reduce our debts here at home. Libertarians should rejoice if Trump carries out this policy.
Meanwhile, with US aid to NATO and the EU cut off, it will be much more difficult for progressive authoritarian leaders to maintain control of their respective populations (no more easy welfare programs). Their reliance on a third world invasion to subjugate western citizens might just be their undoing. It all depends on whether or not the nationalists fight back (I believe they will).
There is a potential end game here, in which European conservatives and American conservatives eventually join forces, but we’re not there yet. The geopolitical interdependency of the cold war model is going to have to die. NATO was supposedly established as a counterbalance to the hostile global ambitions of communism, but today, European and NATO governments ARE the hostile communists.
There is no reason for our alliance to continue any longer.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
