Are the polls underestimating Donald Trump’s support this year? Not according to CNN’s Harry Enten. Last week, he dismissed the idea that the same political party would beat polling expectations in three consecutive presidential cycles across key battleground states. “It’s never happened. Zero times since 1972,” he said. “What normally happens is the pollsters catch on… they make adjustments.”
Why do I bring this up? Well, the final New York Times/Siena poll was released Sunday, and it’s another doozy. “Usually, the final polls point toward a relatively clear favorite, even if that candidate doesn’t go on to win,” notes New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn. “This will not be one of those elections.”
According to the poll, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a virtual tie across seven critical battleground states, where neither candidate holds a decisive lead. Trump leads in Arizona by four points, while Harris holds a slight one-point edge in Georgia. In Michigan, Trump has a narrow one-point advantage, while Harris is up by three in both Nevada and North Carolina. Pennsylvania remains evenly split, and Harris leads by three in Wisconsin.
If you can’t do the math in your head, let me tell you what this poll claims. According to this poll, Kamala Harris would win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania. In fact, she wouldn’t need Michigan either.
Based on NYT polls, Harris wins the Electoral College even without PA and MI. Feel free to bookmark this.https://t.co/AyeWD55S5T pic.twitter.com/yr5jYFmiHu
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 3, 2024
Democrats certainly would love to see this pan out. But Nate Cohn actually put a rather significant disclaimer on these results. […]
— Read More: pjmedia.com
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