(Alt-Market)—There is a popular school of thought that believes most economic stability is purely psychological; that the health of the economy relies on the population NOT knowing the true state of things. In other words, “ignorance is bliss.” I partially agree with the premise but only under certain conditions. If an economy is built on lies then yes, the exposure of those lies would certainly put that system at risk. My argument is, if an economy is built on lies it’s not really worth saving.
The US public in particular is now struggling with the slow realization that our financial and monetary structures are not secure. Many of us in the alternative media have been warning about this for decades. I warned about the inevitability of a stagflation crisis for many years and was criticized as a “doom monger,” at least until 2021 when the crisis became undeniable. But that’s what happens when you live in an economy of lies and you start talking about reality – Some people will see you as a threat.
Even today with everything that’s happening there are still blind muppets and disinformation shills out there that assure us “all is well”. And, usually they’ll cite manipulated government stats as evidence to support their faulty position.
The Biden Administration has proven to be one of the worst culprits when it comes to data misrepresentation and manipulation. To be sure, Biden has had plenty of help with his “Bidenomics” agenda and he wouldn’t be able to rig the numbers without aid from the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the corporate media, etc. Most presidents get help from these institutions when promoting a sick economy as a healthy economy. Some presidents do not…
With that fact in mind, I’ve been wondering lately what will happen when Biden exits the White House in January 2025? What happens to the numbers after that? Will there be a statistical reset? Will the real data be exposed all at once; an avalanche of reality crashing down on the delusional system?
I’m still not convinced that any outcome is beyond dismissal for elections in November. If someone was to ask me what I predict, I would have to say Trump will be president again. From all the evidence I’ve seen the Harris campaign is an astroturf movement with a limited voter base. She’s obviously not very bright and I don’t think the theatrical “joy” strategy is convincing very many people of her competency. Her economic policies (including price controls) are full bore communist and would be devastating to any form of US recovery. Her fiscal plan will be even worse than Bidenomics has been.
But hey, I was certain Trump was getting a second term in 2020 and I was wrong. Who could have known Biden was going to get that unprecedented mail-in voter boost in the middle of the night after everyone went to bed? Truly, he is the most popular presidential candidate of all time. Why they dropped him for Kamala I’ll never fathom…
But seriously, the point is, we have come to a crossroads in our election process where anything is possible (whether real or engineered). I suspect that if Trump enters office once again there will be a multitude of changes to our economic data and they will happen quickly. Some of the rigging is already being exposed, just not on a level where the majority of the populace is aware of it.
Some examples of this rigging include:
Biden’s steady sale of US strategic oil reserves in order to drive down energy and gas prices, thereby artificially reducing CPI (official monthly inflation numbers). By June of this year Biden had sold off at least 50% of the nation’s emergency oil supply just to keep CPI down a few points. Keep in mind, bringing down the CPI does nothing to cut the real inflation that has already accumulated in necessities (30%-50% higher prices depending on the product or service).
Then there’s the manipulation of BLS unemployment data to show millions of new jobs that don’t actually exist. After it was announced that Biden was no longer the Democratic candidate, suddenly the US Payroll has been revised down by over 818,000, likely with more revisions to come. Meaning, Bidenomics was being fluffed with fake job creation.
An even greater concern is the fact that all new jobs created for the past several years have been going to illegal aliens, not legal citizens. In fact, since October of 2019 native-born US workers have lost over 1.4 million jobs. Over the same period, migrants illegally residing in the US have gained 3 million jobs. The new narrative among leftists is that this is a good thing; they claim that the US needs illegal immigration and open borders in order to support the jobs market and “bring down inflation.”
I’m doubtful that the jobs boost to illegals is real, either. More likely the migrant jobs data is rigged because it’s much harder to track and confirm. But these people don’t seem to understand how inflation works – Greater population means higher resource demand, and that helps drive up prices (as we’ve seen in housing). It doesn’t bring prices down, nor does it reduce the existing money supply.
It should also be noted that full time jobs numbers have plunged while part time low-wage jobs have increased. These are the kinds of issues no one in the Biden Admin is talking about.
Finally, rising GDP is often cited as a key indicator of a vibrant economy, but what the “experts” rarely mention is that GDP is rigged by the inclusion of government spending. The more federal and state governments tax, borrow and spend, the higher GDP goes. Currently, government spending accounts for at least 36% of GDP (officially) in the US.
It makes it look like America is more successful than ever but this is based on the government taking more cash from the public, printing more money and going into greater debt, then throwing that cash away with wild abandon in order to prop up the numbers.
Goldman Sachs recently made a statement that under a Harris regime GDP would go up and under Trump GDP would take a big hit. They are right, in a way, but they don’t explain the real reason why this is the case.
If Trump follows through on his fiscal responsibility policies (Elon Musk has been tapped to head up investigations into government efficiency), then OF COURSE we’ll see a drop in GDP. It would mean government spending will go down and the rigging of GDP will end. With Harris, government spending will skyrocket and so the GDP bubble will continue to grow. In fact, Harris will be incentivized to increase government spending in order to hide greater deflation in GDP.
Trump’s arrival in the Oval Office will result in a hailstorm of bad economic data, and most of this will be due to the sudden end of statistical manipulations that have been in place for the last four years. We are currently in the midst of a tone-shift in which recessionary forces are pressuring markets more than inflation. But don’t be fooled…
As soon as the Federal Reserve cuts rates inflation will spike again, and if Trump is in office a CPI jump will be even more pronounced. Biden’s oil reserve dumps will be over, no longer anchoring CPI. We will continue to see inflation in necessities with deflation in other areas including jobs and GDP. That’s what happens during a stagflation crisis.
With Harris the same problems will occur, they just won’t be reported and the stats will not reflect the truth. With Trump, the stats will be more transparent and the media will howl about how conservatives are destroying the economy. The game plan is obvious.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
