(The Economic Collapse Blog)—Shoplifters are going hog wild all over America, and our politicians seem powerless to stop this crisis. When I was growing up, shoplifting was something that was pretty rare. Once in a while some irresponsible idiot would slip a candy bar into his pocket, but it wasn’t something that retailers were too stressed out about. But now everything has changed. Retail “shrink” broke the 100 billion dollar barrier in 2022, and the final number for 2023 is expected to be even higher. Stuff is being stolen from our major retailers on an industrial scale, and this is having very serious consequences.
From coast to coast, retail locations are being permanently shut down because there is no end in sight to this madness.
This is particularly true in our largest urban areas. In San Francisco, a Macy’s store that had been open for 77 years is being closed down, and employees are telling the press that shoplifting was the primary factor behind the decision…
Employees at Macy’s flagship San Francisco store in Union Square have blamed its planned closure on shoplifting – despite mayor London Breed claiming crime was not a factor.
The Union Square store announced earlier this week it will be closing its doors after 77 years as part of a plan to close 150 locations across the nation over the next three years.
It isn’t just a few things that are going missing at that Macy’s store.
According to one employee, the men’s department is being systematically looted on a daily basis…
“It happens every day,” employee Steve Dalisay said.
Hanging up blazers in the Macy’s sixth-floor men’s department, Dalisay said blazers, wallets and boxer briefs are the items most frequently stolen from his department. He said thieves take at least four blazers every day, adding that he typically sees about 10 wallets and 20 briefs stolen daily.
Another employee says that most of the shoplifting is being done by drug users and groups of teens…
Shoplifters, he said, tend to be in two categories: drug users going after specific items for fences or teens entering the store in teams on brazen shoplifting blitzes.
“I’m not in charge of making the estimates of how much we lose in a day, but last year we were told the losses were in the millions,” the employee said.
“It’s a big thing,” he added. “What we have learned is a lot of drug users have deals with the fencers. They’ll give the drug users a list of stuff from the store, and they’ll go try to execute the list.”
Our national shoplifting crisis and our national drug crisis are very closely related.
Drug users need money to fund their habits, and shoplifting is one of the easiest ways to obtain things to sell.
At this point, it would be difficult to overstate the severity of the drug crisis in the state of California. According to Governor Gavin Newsom, authorities in his state seized enough fentanyl last year “to potentially kill the global population nearly twice over”…
Roughly 62,000 pounds of fentanyl smuggled into California was confiscated by authorities in 2023. The total amount of the potent synthetic opioid seized last year “is enough to potentially kill the global population nearly twice over,” Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office announced Tuesday.
In 2023, the California National Guard supported other law enforcement agencies in counter-drug operations across the state, seizing a record 62,000 pounds of fentanyl at ports of entry, according to a news release from Newsom’s office.
That is certainly a lot of fentanyl.
If you can believe it, the amount of fentanyl that was seized in the state in 2023 was more than 10 times greater than the amount that was seized in 2021…
Compared with just a few years ago, the amount of fentanyl seized by authorities has dramatically surged. In 2021, California authorities seized more than 5,300 pounds of the drug, with a street value of $64 million. In 2022 that rose to 28,000 pounds, with a street value of $230 million, based on the U.S. Department of Justice evaluation of illegal-drug values in the Los Angeles region.
We have never seen anything like this before.
A lot of that fentanyl comes from Mexico, but a lot of it also comes from China.
The streets of California cities are flooded with addicts, and they are going to do whatever they have to do to feed their addictions.
So this shoplifting crisis is not going away.
At one hardware store in San Francisco, employees are now escorting customers around the store in a desperate attempt to reduce the level of shoplifting…
A longtime San Francisco business is trying something new to curb what it says has been “rampant shoplifting.”
Fredericksen’s Hardware and Paint in Cow Hollow is now offering a one-on-one shopping experience. The idea is to separate actual customers from those looking to steal from the store.
During certain hours, Fredericksen’s blocks off part of the store’s entrance and has people wait for an employee to help them instead of allowing people to just roam the store. The store’s longtime manager says it’s a move that was worth trying for the sake of the business, their employees, and their customers.
I think that we will soon see many more retailers offer “one-on-one shopping experiences” to their customers.
UNREAL. This store in San Francisco now has a barrier when you walk in and shoppers need to be accompanied by staff as they shop through the store because crime has got so bad.
Welcome to @GavinNewsom’s California pic.twitter.com/c2bixYEUbO
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 25, 2024
Major retailers just can’t keep losing inventory like they have been.
The amount of retail “shrink” in the United States has more than doubled in recent years, and it just continues to explode higher…
Shrink is the industry term for inventory loss often attributed to theft, damage, or errors. Once simply considered a cost of doing business, shrink resulted in retail profit losses exceeding a staggering $100 billion in 2022.
What’s more problematic, the trend of shrink appears to be far from reversing course, with losses more than doubling over the past five years. In an industry where margins and profitability are already under significant pressure, the rise in retail shrink is capturing the attention of all levels within retail organizations.
Sadly, there are some parts of the country where the looting of retailers has essentially become a way of life.
In fact, this has even been happening in our nation’s capital…
A Washington D.C. CVS store is shutting its doors after being repeatedly ransacked by thieves, the chain has confirmed.
The pharmacy, located in the Columbia Heights neighborhood, went viral last October when videos emerged of it totally stripped of all its products after being targeted by a teen gang.
Staff claim more than 45 schoolkids would go into the store and steal chips and drinks in the morning, after their classes and late at night. It will close on February 29, according to WTTG-TV.
Those kids wouldn’t have been able to loot that store multiple times per day if they had been put in prison the first time they did it.
But our politicians don’t want such harsh laws.
They want to coddle the criminals, and as a result much of the rest of the population is living in fear.
This is just another example of how upside down our society has become.
The solutions to our national shoplifting crisis are simple enough, but I doubt that we will see things turn around any time soon.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
Snyder spews: “our politicians seem powerless to stop this crisis.”
What kind of crazy CUHRAP sentence is that?
The corrupt globalist/commies are doing everything possible to encourage it!
How many governors across the nation have dumped out dangerous criminals on the streets who still should be in prison?!
Take one example of Washington state, where Gov. XI INSLEE has reduced the state prisons by one–third, dumping out dangerous child killers and baby killers and serial killers onto the streets! The two governor sleazoids before him, CHRISTINE GREGOIRE and GARY LOCKE, brought hordes of dangerous ex–convicts to the Puget Sound region when they both signed the INTERSTATE COMPACT ON PAROLEES, who would once again, murder, rape, assault and rob!