Editor’s Note: I did a brief segment about this article on a recent episode of The JD Rucker Show. Unfortunately, I abandoned the article and moved on to the next story too soon. I should have focused more on this because it really does represent a dual-existential threat to America’s economy. Here’s the short video followed by the article from Daisy Luther at The Organic Prepper.
If you think things are bad economically now, hang on to your halo. We are facing a perfect storm for our supply chain within the next month unless several things change dramatically.
It’s been one thing after another ever since the Covid pandemic began to affect our supply chain back in 2020. To be clear, you don’t have to believe that a pandemic existed, that the virus was serious, or even that the virus existed. That isn’t what this article is about. Regardless of one’s feelings, it was a trigger for an economic disaster that has continued to snowball.
We watched the shelves in America get cleared in a day in March of that year, and things have never been the same since. Global shipping all but shut down. And the prices went up.
Farmers could not harvest their food or get it processed and ready to be delivered to stores. And the prices went up.
Then the cost of fuel skyrocketed. And the prices went up.
And now, we’re facing a new challenge in what can only be described as a looming transportation collapse. Two things are slated to happen within the next month that could make what we’ve experienced so far look like a walk in the park.
- We have 25 days of diesel fuel left.
- Biden has failed to come to an agreement with rail workers’ unions, and a strike could start as soon as November 19th.
Let’s take a closer look at each of these factors.
The diesel fuel shortage
The diesel fuel shortage that is looming could be absolutely catastrophic. The fuel of trucks, trains, and ships – this could put a real kibosh on the transit of goods. What’s more, the diesel shortage also affects home heating fuel.
A shortage of diesel fuel is spreading across the United States, with one company launching an emergency delivery protocol, requesting a 72-hour advance notice from clients to be able to make the delivery.
Per a Bloomberg report, fuel supplier Mansfield Energy wrote in a note to its clients that “conditions are rapidly devolving” and “At times, carriers are having to visit multiple terminals to find supply, which delays deliveries and strains local trucking capacity.”
Some are blaming this shortage on a lack of refining capacity. If you look more closely at this, refineries are closing down in direct response to the current administration’s new policies to move the country to green energy.
Phil Flynn, an analyst for Fox News, said:
Phil Flynn, a senior account executive/market analyst at the Price Futures Group and FOX Business contributor, warned that strict regulation under the Biden administration will continue to put pressure on refineries to stay in business.
“It wasn’t too long ago the country was clamoring for the industry to buy and build new refineries because they couldn’t keep up with demand,” Flynn said Monday.
But government pressure to wean the country off of fossil fuels has made business difficult, with Flynn arguing that “refineries are getting squeezed out of business because of stricter regulations from the Biden administration and the pressure by the government” to “reduce demand for gasoline.”
If we actually run out of diesel fuel, the result on our supply chain would be catastrophic. We could expect shelves to empty and cargo ships to divert from America to places that have a better chance of delivering the goods. What’s more, prices would skyrocket on any good that has to be transported – which is basically all of them. If you can find it at all, it will cost significantly more.
What is being done about this?
It’s pretty hard to solve a problem created by bad policies. It’s not something you can undo overnight. Yahoo News reports on these potential actions that could be taken to try and lessen the blow.
Deese adds that the Fed has some tools to bolster diesel supply, like the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, which houses one million barrels of diesel in case of a disruption in supplies.
“We have looked very carefully at being prepared to deploy as and when necessary,” he said.
But The Washington Post reports that diesel demand is so high, that if a million barrels of diesel were delivered from the Northeast reserves, they would be depleted in less than six hours.
The Biden administration also recently announced it would be tapping into the country’s emergency oil reserves to counter rising gas prices, despite concerns over the long-term efficacy.
White House officials haven’t completely ruled out fuel export restrictions either, but the American Petroleum Institute and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers sent out a joint letter expressing their concerns in early October.
“Banning or limiting the export of refined products would likely decrease inventory levels, reduce domestic refining capacity, put upward pressure on consumer fuel prices and alienate U.S. allies during a time of war,” the group wrote.
(Now’s a good time to check out our free QUICKSTART Guide to building a 3-layer food storage system.)
The potential rail strike
Next, we have the possibility of a rail strike. This crisis was narrowly averted back in September when Biden and union representatives reached a tentative agreement. At the time, Biden hailed it as “an important win” for the American people, but it looks like the win was only a temporary kicking of the can.
Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division has rejected the deal offered last month, putting a strike back on the table.
…many union members were skeptical from the start, with some telling The Washington Post that the details were opaque. The plan included a 24 percent pay increase by 2024 — bringing the average wage to $110,000 a year — and $1,000 annual bonuses for five years. It also ensured health-care co-pays and deductibles would not increase.
But it seemed to include only one paid sick day, even after union leaders had pushed for 15.
“Railroaders are discouraged and upset with working conditions and compensation and hold their employer in low regard. Railroaders do not feel valued,” BMWED President Tony D. Cardwell said in a statement Monday announcing the vote outcome. “They resent the fact that management holds no regard for their quality of life, illustrated by their stubborn reluctance to provide a higher quantity of paid time off, especially for sickness.”
The tentative pact stemmed from two years of negotiations between the carriers and unions, and the White House appointed an emergency board in early July to mediate. One of the sticking points was a points-based attendance policy adopted by some of the largest carriers earlier this year. Those policies can penalize workers for missing work for routine doctor’s appointments or family emergencies.
Unfortunately, that “win” wasn’t so much a victory as it was a temporary reprieve. Apparently, the decision of this union was a shock.
“For the first time that I can remember, the BRS members voted not to ratify a National Agreement, and with the highest participation rate in BRS history,” said Michael Baldwin, President of the BRS, in a statement.
Two of the biggest unions have not yet voted, and their decision could doom us to a railway shutdown. The deadline to reach an agreement is November 19th.
What would happen in the event of a rail strike?
Edward Segal of Forbes.com has been carefully watching this situation.
As I wrote last month, “Had the national railroad strike become a reality [in September], the labor stoppage would have created another crisis for thousands of companies and organizations. The impact on companies, organizations and fragile supply chains would have depended, of course, on the duration of the strike.”
Another factor company executives should keep in mind if there’s a strike is the reaction of consumers.
“After nearly three years of supply chain delays and asks for ‘understanding’ during difficult times, customers are facing supply chain fatigue,” Kushal Nahata, CEO of FarEye, a last mile delivery management company, said via email.
“The patience they had during the early days of the pandemic is waning, and the overall sentiment is that companies should be able to plan accordingly and have solutions readily available,” he advised.
Companies “should adapt their logistics models so [that] very little disruption is felt by their customer base. If they don’t, customers have no problem moving onto another brand that can— nearly 90% of customers will abandon an online retailer if they see poor delivery terms,” Nahata warned.
Segal isn’t wrong. We, the consumers, are sick of paying through the nose for terrible policies that have caused this economic disaster.
But, yet again, the decisions are out of our hands.
How do you prep for something like this?
How on earth do you prep for a transportation shutdown, especially after the past two and a half years? The supplies in stores are depleted and expensive; many of us have consumed a portion, if not all of our existing supplies; and Americans are broke.
Unless you are one of the people fortunate enough to be in a position to do so, you can’t buy your way out of this problem.
My suggestion is to consider the things you truly cannot get by without: medications, special foods necessary to your health, and any other essential item you must have, and focus your resources on these things. This isn’t about “wants” and “comforts.” It’s about “needs.” Be sure that you are clear on the difference. If we get lucky and these issues are resolved without a transportation collapse, you know you didn’t purchase a bunch of stuff you’ll never use – you got the things that are necessary.
As for everything else, we’re going to have to focus on being the most adaptable and resilient versions of ourselves. We are going to have to learn to live with different options at the store, making do, and doing without.
While we aren’t surrounded by marauders, and we still have power, this is the scenario we’ve been prepping for, and I believe that we, as preppers, are mentally ready to survive this. It won’t be easy, but we have the advantage – we knew it was going to happen. We didn’t know for sure what it would look like, but we’ve known for years that this kick-the-can economy was hanging on by a thread.
(Want uninterrupted access to The Organic Prepper? Check out our paid-subscription newsletter.)
What are your thoughts on the supply chain?
Do you think that we’ll run out of diesel and that the railway strike will occur? How devastating do you believe it will be for our supply chain if these things do happen? How do you intend to prepare for this? And do you have any advice for others? Let’s discuss it in the comments section.
About Daisy
Daisy Luther is a coffee-swigging, adventure-seeking, globe-trotting blogger. She is the founder and publisher of three websites. 1) The Organic Prepper, which is about current events, preparedness, self-reliance, and the pursuit of liberty; 2) The Frugalite, a website with thrifty tips and solutions to help people get a handle on their personal finances without feeling deprived; and 3) PreppersDailyNews.com, an aggregate site where you can find links to all the most important news for those who wish to be prepared. Her work is widely republished across alternative media and she has appeared in many interviews.
Daisy is the best-selling author of 5 traditionally published books, 12 self-published books, and runs a small digital publishing company with PDF guides, printables, and courses at SelfRelianceand Survival.com You can find her on Facebook, Pinterest, Gab, MeWe, Parler, Instagram, and Twitter.
Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
